The Fate of Vintage Phonographs/Gramophones/Records Ages From Now

I was going through my record collection today, and found a record I hadn't seen in years and had totally forgotten about: a brown wax cylinder record from 1896 that has Vess L. Ossman playing banjo on it. Being that it's an artifact of such extreme age, and we can still listen to it and "interact" in the same manner that people did all those years ago, it got me thinking of what will end up happening to all these records, wind-up record players and tube stereos when people born 50/100/500 years from now dominate the planet? (Solid state junk will always be around, so I'm not so worried about those!)

I'm 22 years old now and in perfect health, so I can reasonably expect to live to another 60-75 years and enjoy my collection during that time. However, by then, my VV 1-90 will be approximately 150 years old, my Motorola 3-channel stereo will be approximately 125 years old, and that brown wax cylinder record will be approximately 185 years old!

So what's my point? What will end up happening to these wonderful records and record players if they're already anywhere from 70-100 years old now and need motor rebuilds, reproducer rebuilds, amp rebuilds, etc? Finding people today who will service them correctly is a hassle- will there even be people in as little as 75 years from now who will have the technological know-how to work on these machines properly, and give them a second re-build so they can still be used? And is it really possible for people to still be playing records on wind-up equipment 500+ years from now? Will that brown wax cylinder completely be deteriorated by then, or just to the point that it can't safely be played?

Let me know your thoughts on this - I would hate to think that such wonderful and interactive artifacts like analogue audio would be ignored by future generations.

Looking back to the 1970s, when I was "stung by a phonograph needle," all of the available resources were localized. If I wanted old 78s, I'd have to hunt them down by scouring every junk and "antiques" shop I could find within the area I lived. (I seldom came across Victrolas, and if I did, they were priced astronomically, even though they were in the 40-50 year old range at the time.) There was no "community" of collectors that I could turn to for information. I only became aware that there were "others like me" when I saw a reference to collecting "wind up phonographs" and records in a book about collectibles and antiques--actually a series of books published by Time-Life Books, and stocked by our local library. (That same library also had a copy of "The Fabulous Phonograph," by Roland Gelatt, published in the mid-1950s, and "From Tinfoil to Stereo" by Welch and Read, which was published in 1959. I read both books, cover to cover. They were the only comprehensive histories of the recording industry available at the time.)

The Time book contained a very short list of hobby related resources, one of which was the address for the publication, "The Antique Phonograph Monthly" (APM). I immediately wrote to them and ordered a subscription. The APM provided articles related to the collection of antique phonographs and old records, along with a list of shops that specialized in repair, sales, etc. Most were based in the New York area, at the time. Nonetheless, this opened up a world to me.

As the decades progressed, I made contact with other hobby enthusiasts, through the APM, and later, through friends of those friends. I corresponded with them--at first, via snail mail, then fax, and finally through email, after the arrival of the internet.

With the internet, the hobby seemed to grow exponentially since everyone could take advantage of instantaneous communication with other hobbyists, as well as access information about available records, machines, parts, manuals, and books, etc.--located all over the world. One of the fist forums devoted exclusively to the hobby was Phonoland. The other major forum was "The Old Time Victrola Music Message Board." Now, it's hard to imagine what the hobby would be like without the internet; without eBay or Craigslist, (or Google), or the many, many sites and forums exclusively devoted to antique phonographs and records.

Looking ahead, I can see certain recent technological innovations--really just emerging and being perfected right now--such as home 3D printers--become especially useful to the hobby. (For this to happen, of course, these machines will have to accommodate the use of higher quality plastics or synthetic metals than they use now; but it will come.) I can see 3D printers used for recreating a broken reproducer shell or tonearm support bracket, or cabinet moldings, or a diaphragm, or even certain motor gears and springs. (Perhaps cylinder records, or 78s, or even LPs will be reproducible using 3D scanners and printers, some day.) Certainly, during the years ahead, other useful technologies will come along. (Home fabric "printers" that can re-create a grille cloth?)

Also looking ahead, it's important to look backwards at collectibles that have remained popular--albeit, for a limited number of people, as is the case with this hobby--for centuries, such as clocks, music boxes, automated musical instruments, etc. It seems that there have always been people willing to devote the time to learn how to keep these antiquated devices functional, and I'm optimistic enough to believe that the same holds true for this hobby.

The hobby is roughly about 80 years old. Back in the early 1990s, I met an elderly collector who began acquiring machines and records during the 1930s. (He told me that he paid $1 for a Trademark Model Berliner Gramophone.) So, yes, I'd say it's a safe bet that it will continue to generate interest for another 80 years, well into the next century, and possibly beyond, as long as young people, such as yourself, are stung by the needle.

Joe

I've been watching and participating in several auctions of late and I've noticed that the prices are still steadily increasing for any good quality items in good original condition. I believe this means that our hobby is probably safe for a few more years yet. Collectors are largely becoming a fussier bunch though and it is also true that poorly "restored", completed or repaired items rarely make the sort of money they did 20 years ago. I've heard from some people in the trade that there are also some encouraging signs that younger people are becoming fascinated by older redundant technology. I've only witnessed this very rarely myself.

Admittedly the numbers are still very low and watching younger people today with their cell-phones / iPhones glued to hand and accompanying them with every movement of their lives, it is difficult to foresee a very long-term future for a century old technology. Today everything is disposable and newer technology makes yesterdays technology an item for the garbage bin, not anything to be treasured or even remembered fondly, let alone get excited about..

I think with a close eye on preservation and long-term care a lot of the surviving gramophones, phonographs and records should safely outlive all of us here. The "problem" if I can call it that is when too much stuff hits the market in one go, say when a collector dies and the surviving family want rid of it all. Sadly this is getting a more common occurence these days as the earlier generations of collectors are getting on in yeras. I've seen this a few times in the past 5 years and the general response from collectors is usually one of astonishment at the very low prices achieved. However, fast forward a few months and everyone has forgotten that particular auction and when a rare item appears on the internet seasoned collectors reach for their wallets once again without much of a pause.

So I'd end my thought my saying that I believe the interest will continue indefinitely but the market will steadily shrink over the decades with more and more "return to market" items being re-sold to a smaller crowd.

One thing for you to consider here is the consistent march of the Crapophone. Both India and China churn out thousands of these awful pieces of junk every year and have done so for at least 30 years. If there was no nostalgia for the "lost past" or interest in interesting and untypical household adornments, why would anyone bother to make them? Who is buying them? Someone must be!

Thank you, gentlemen, for your input! I'm sure once a few more decades pass, 78s/cylinders, wind-up phonographs and early tube stereos will be come to seen as interesting historical items as opposed to recreational home use devices that just happen to be old. Whether or not that's good is up for debate, but it does bring me relief to know that once I am under the earth, my items will be preserved by enough collectors out there that I don't need to be overly worried about it (I have no idea whether they will use them or just display them, though). As they get older many decades from now (and hence more fragile and harder to repair), perhaps the best method of care for them is like how most of us treat fine chinaware - fine to display and talk about, but only for use on special occasions under direct supervision and with the most delicate of handling.

That being said, if a century from now my Victrola or tube stereo (with all original parts) falls into the wrong hands and winds up being broken, I WILL be coming back to haunt whoever would be responsible for that inhumane act of carelessness

It will always be possible with simple tools and machine tools to replicate most mechanical parts. I have made several parts myself to get record changers to work again.

Some rubber mechanical parts will be hard to get, including anything other than simple phono drive wheels and belts. One hard to find item is the rubber suspension grommet for a phono motor. Another is any rubber part used to feel the size of a record or drop a record.

What will become increasingly hard to get are electrical and electronic parts they don't make anymore. These include:

- Vacuum tubes (only a few popular types used in guitar amps are still made). They use up their finite lifetimes when turned on.
- Electrolytic capacitors. They deteriorate with age, especially when they are not used. Higher voltages are becoming hard to get.
- Some types of light bulbs (e.g. the #49 bulbs used in some auto gain controls).
- Crystal or ceramic pickups to fit certain tonearms
- Tonearm wiring
- Transformers for special purposes
- Germanium diodes and transistors
- Older transistors
- Custom wafer switches
- Integrated circuits designed for specific products (no longer made)
- Tuning capacitors
- Radio tuning crystals
- Ganged potentiometers
- Specific speaker drivers
- Motors

Other parts can be had, but only if you order lots of 100 or 1000.

Even more hard to get will be parts for players for the various tape and digital disc formats once they become obsolete. These would be very hard to replicate.

It's worse than I thought.

- I went to look at receivers to replace an aging one. Some of them no longer have RCA jacks on them. or have only one or two sets. No magnetic phono inputs. Many have nothing but digital connectors. The ones that do surround sound and have RCA inputs have only stereo inputs, not the 6-channel analog input for my DVD player or my quadraphonic decoders.

- Antique dealers seem to be avoiding old receivers and amplifiers, probably because most of them do not work. I would buy nonworking ones if the power supplies have failed, as I can easily rebuild those.

- Those 3-speed turntables they sell have ceramic cartridges and no 78 stylus.

- Any RCA cables they sell now are bad - the crimp connections inside them fail after one or two repluggings.

- Nobody sells new components anymore. Everything is a compact or an integrated surround system.

Why can't they make stuff compatible?